Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
