A mere 60 days prior when the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a sign or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six games, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – but currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
